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Steve Sebelius
Cain to Sebelius: Get a clue, buddy!
Herman Cain thinks I'm full of it.
At least that's what he said after my friend Chuck Muth, president of Citizen Outreach, read the GOP presidential contender a portion of my Wednesday column. I claimed in print that straw poll results in Nevada and Florida (both of which Cain won) aren't a good way to predict who will gain the nomination.
"He doesn't have a clue," Cain said after Muth read an excerpt of my piece to him during a Wednesday conference call. "He is stuck in that old paradigm of how things are normally determined when it comes to who's the nominee.
"He's obviously out of touch, along with a lot of other people in the media, with what real people are saying," Cain continued. "The people that attend your event in Nevada, when I won that straw poll, the people that attend all of these events, there's some real folk out here. And so, he is just ignoring the reality of what's going on out there."
And the kicker: "So my response to what he is saying is, he doesn't have a clue. Stay tuned."
Well, I most certainly will. But forgive me if I don't change my mind.
There are, no doubt, plenty of people who want the former CEO of Godfather's Pizza to become president. I was impressed with his speech to Muth's Conservative Leadership Conference in July, when he shared his personal story and how he'd apply the lessons he learned in business to running the government.
To a certain extent, Cain is benefitting from a lackluster Republican field. It's as if would-be voters have arrived at the Ford dealership and are utterly unimpressed with the the Fusion, the Edge, the Explorer, even the Mustang and the Taurus and the steady, reliable F-150.
Instead, they gaze across the street and notice the Chevy dealership, with that sweet new Camaro, and they start to dream of driving that around instead.
People vote their dreams and their philosophy in the straw poll, when nothing's on the line and there's plenty of time to send a message. Maybe they like Cain's 9/9/9 plan (a 9 percent tax on income, a 9 percent national sales tax and a 9 percent corporate profits tax). Maybe they like his fiery speaking style. Maybe they relate to what they perceive as his common-sense, down-to-earth demeanor. But that's now.
Starting in January (thanks to Florida for moving up its primary and forcing us all to spend Christmas contemplating politics) things are going to change. When Iowa voters turn out for their caucus, New Hampshire residents to their primary and we in Nevada to our own caucus, the question will be different.
This may be old-paradigm thinking, but it won't be about dreams and message-sending anymore. It will be about answering a simple question: Which of these guys (and gal) has the best chance of keeping President Barack Obama from winning a second term? Not who has "a" chance of winning. Who's got the best chance of winning.
And the odds are, that's not going to be Cain.
Yes, he won the Nevada straw poll. And yes, he won the Florida straw poll. And Washington state, Colorado and Georgia, too.
But guess what? The number of people who handed him those victories could easily fit into the Thomas & Mack Center, with plenty of room left over.
And while Cain refers to them as "real folk," they're really not. They're politically involved followers of current events. And that sadly separates them from most of their fellow citizens. (As a political junkie myself, I feel their pain, even if I don't share their positions.)
None of this should serve as discouragement to Cain fans, or those of Ron Paul (winner of the California straw poll), Michele Bachmann (winner of the Iowa straw poll) or Rick Santorum (winner of the Pennsylvania and South Carolina straw polls). Turning out and advocating for your candidate is what the American political system is all about.
But elections are won by those who show up. And on election day, all our fellow citizens who've not been paying as close attention get to turn out and have their say. Some will undoubtedly vote for Cain; many will vote for Paul. Bachmann and Santorum may get a few votes, too. (There's one in every crowd.)
But the winner? That's probably going to be somebody we clueless media people have identified as a front-runner, people such as Mitt Romney or maybe Rick Perry.
If you doubt me, why not ask somebody with no reason to lie, such as Tim Pawlenty?
Of course, I could be wrong, and if I am, I'll readily and publicly own up to being clueless. But let's be honest: I'm not.
Steve Sebelius is a Review-Journal political columnist, and author of the blog SlashPolitics.com. Follow him on Twitter at www.Twitter.com/SteveSebelius or reach him at (702) 387-5276 or ssebelius@reviewjournal.com.
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It seems a lot of commentators below are missing the authors point that the straw polls are not binding. He isn't saying Cain can't win or won't win, just it is too early to tell. The main problem is as candidates drop out the field, others will benefit. Remember McCain was looking out of it at this time four years ago.
I think it is interesting that in many respects Romney should win, but there is a significant Republican base that is anti-Romney. The large field at the moment benefits Romney, if the field stays at six or more candidates, then Romney should win early. If the field narrows to 2-3 then I wonder where the support will swing.
I think the Republicans just want to run a brother against another brother. This would really confuse the black voters. Just like when they elected a black chairman for the RNC before the 2008 election.
With all due respect, I agree with Cain. The man has some common sense and a track record with business. Romney can claim that, but his message is muddled as he continues to cater rather than lead. If you don't embrace change, which sometimes can be painful, you'll never grow. Our country is stagnating and/or going backwards. People were sold a fairytale in 2008 because that's what the media told them. If our country doesn't sober up in 2012, we can expect to reside in the history books next to the empires (yes empires) of Egypt, Greece and Rome. Personally, we don't have to go there - yet - if we don't want to. Your column is off point.
Ron Paul is the people's champion. Not Romney, Cain, Christie, Perry or any other. RON PAUL is who the people want, but it appears the GOP is full of traitors and sell outs.
Cain is good on his 9,9,9 tax plan which he may have borrowed from the brilliant Kenneth Wagner of Las Vegas.
RON PAUL tops every poll and is who the people are crying out for. We shall soon discover that the Republican/Democrat parties are both rigged and put on a front and have nothing to do with what the people want.
Hey Sebelius (hack)... do you really live in Nevada? If you did, you would know there has been NO Nevada Straw Poll. Pathetic... really. When's the apology coming? You call this journalism? No wonder journalist is consistently the most disliked profession in America. Clown.
@ Hermit. I don't have cable TV or Dish or Direct or any way at all of watching fox news. Get that off your brain. Now as to ford actually borrowing money to stay afloat, they did not. The others did and still do. You are correct Ford borrowed later but Ford also benefits to this day from the fact they did not need or take any of that wonderful initial money with all its strings. Go back to your media matters, fact check lib rainbow world now.
xfmrhsd wrote on September 30, 2011 07:44 AM:
So just who would the Camaro represent? Funny you would pick that particular analogy being Ford is the one took no fed loan money and GM is still surviving on our tax dollars.,,,,,,,,,, MRS ED is a hater tot!
Ford did borrow a lot of money from the government. If you would turn off FauxNews you would know this.
"Although Ford did not need money from the $80 billion bailout program, Ford did receive $5.9 billion in government loans in 2009 to retool its manufacturing plants to produce more fuel-efficient cars, and the company lobbied for and benefited from the cash-for-clunkers program — contrary to the ad’s testimonial that Ford is “standing on their own.”
http://factcheck.org/2011/09/ford-motor-co-does-u-turn-on-bailouts/
You say the republicans have a lackluster field. Compared to what is now ensconced in the WH, any one of the field would be a better choice. Go peddle your pap to the progressives. They need some good news to soften the upcoming blowout. November 2012 can't come fast enough. Maybe some leftists will recommend postponing elections for a couple years. OOPS!
Just kidding...I mean hyperbole...errr Sarcasm? Right....and you call our candidates stupid. What a maroon!
Right Sebelius. Whatever you say. I'm sure a national figure like Cain is aware of some bush league columnist in Las Vegas that writes for a paper which has a readership of 200,000 people. Wow, this is pathetic. What's next? Are you going to tell us how a friend of your second cousin who is married to a guy that knows your niece told you that BO read your column and thinks your dead on. Let's just give you the benefit of the doubt and say you are not engaged in some mast**boratory fantasy and Cain really is aware of your so called journalistic excellence. What is it with you Libs that you cannot stand when a black man is both conservative and successful? Is it because deep down you prefer to keep them on the plantation of government dependency so they continue to vote Democrat?
Mrs. Ed is a I d ten error.