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VIN SUPRYNOWICZ: Extending the recession indefinitely

Unemployment continues to tick upward. Small businesses forgo profits on two-for-one deals just to keep the doors open.

But we're in recovery. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, the guy who couldn't get around to paying his own taxes, says so. After all, government is doing all it can to speed the recovery, isn't it?


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  • "Fed keeps key rate near zero," the Business page headline screamed on Sept. 24. Low interest rates should get things "stimulated," shouldn't they? Then, three days later, over a Washington dateline, "Jobless benefits extension backed: Lawmakers voted 331-83 to extend jobless benefits by 13 weeks in 27 states, including Nevada, where the unemployment rate is above 8.5 percent."

    That should help, right?

    For the answers, let us turn to Murray Rothbard's classic account of the economic mistakes made in Washington from 1929 through 1938, "America's Great Depression."

    When economies get into trouble, Mr. Rothbard points out, businessmen are "misled by bank credit inflation to invest too much in higher-order capital goods" such as houses and cars. The "boom," then, "is actually a period of wasteful misinvestment. ... Errors are made due to bank credit's tampering with the free market." This is followed by a recovery period that sees a "rapid liquidation of the wasteful investments," and, typically, a deflationary credit contraction, which helps restore confidence in the remaining sound banks.

    "In short, and this is a highly important point to grasp, the depression is the recovery process. ... The depression, then, far from being an evil scourge, is the necessary and beneficial return of the economy to normal after the distortions by the boom. The boom, then requires a bust. ...

    "If government wishes to see a depression ended as quickly as possible, and the economy returned to normal prosperity," professor Rothbard explains, "the first and clearest injunction is: don't interfere with the market's adjustment process," which will include bankruptcies of unsound enterprises, credit contraction and falling wages and prices.

    This is the course the government took during the 1920-21 recession, which was over so quickly that the history books barely remember it. (Except in the farm segment of the economy, where the government made the mistake of interfering to try to hold crop prices at artificially inflated World War I levels -- a mistake that has now been ongoing for 90 years.)

    But let us say, for the sake of argument, that government wanted to hamper the normal process of economic adjustment, which helps make recessions brief and relatively painless.

    If anyone in Washington were to be so wacky as to seek to extend the pain of a recession, what course would they follow? On Page 26 of "America's Great Depression," Rothbard presents that very catalog of idiocy.

    "Here are the ways the adjustment process can be hobbled:" he writes.

    "1) Prevent or delay liquidation. Lend money to shaky businesses, call on banks to lend further, etc.

    "2) Inflate further. Further inflation blocks the necessary fall in prices, thus delaying adjustment and prolonging depression. Further credit expansion creates more malinvestments, which, in their turn, will have to be liquidated in some later depression. A government 'easy money' policy prevents the market's return to the necessary higher interest rates.

    "3) Keep wage rates up. Artificial maintenance of wage rates in a depression ensures permanent mass unemployment. Furthermore, in a deflation, when prices are falling, keeping the same rate of money wages means that real wage rates have been pushed higher. In the face of falling business demand, this greatly aggravates the unemployment problem."

    In addition to "minimum wage laws," don't we now have "living wage" ordinances, "project labor agreements," and, for our unionized government employees, "automatic step and seniority raises" in addition to cost-of-living adjustments that boost the pay of government employees as well as welfare recipients ... even when the cost of living is falling?

    "4) Keep prices up," Rothbard continues, cataloguing precisely the wrong things to do if you want a recession to end. "Keeping prices above their free-market levels will create unsalable surpluses, and prevent a return to prosperity.

    "5) Stimulate consumption and discourage saving. We have seen that more saving and less consumption would speed recovery; more consumption and less saving aggravate the shortage of saved-capital even further. Government can encourage consumption by 'food stamp plans' and relief payments."

    Note that "America's Great Depression" was published in 1963. How's Rothbard doing at predicting Obamanomics, so far? About the only thing he seems to have missed are "Cash for Clunkers" and the fledgling "green jobs" boondoggle.)

    Government "can discourage savings and investment by higher taxes," Rothbard continues, "particularly on the wealthy and on corporations and estates. As a matter of fact, any increase of taxes and government spending will discourage saving and investment and stimulate consumption, since government spending is all consumption. ...

    "6) Subsidize unemployment: Any subsidization of unemployment (via unemployment 'insurance,' relief, etc.) will prolong unemployment indefinitely, and delay the shift of workers to the fields where jobs are available."

    Incredible. We know what these measures do. They delay economic adjustment and recovery; they extend economic hardship, regardless of whether we call the hard times a depression or a "great recession."

    This was all proved, laboriously, in spades, from 1929 to 1938, all brilliantly analyzed and explained by the late Murray N. Rothbard, with whom I had the honor to discuss some of government's tendencies to repeat the same mind-boggling errors over and over again, during his time at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

    The only question remaining: Since the experiment has already been done, and the long-term effects of these policies demonstrated -- to the enormous pain and inconvenience of our long-suffering grandparents -- why do the boys in Washington now insist on repeating this experiment in economic disaster, all over again?

    Vin Suprynowicz is assistant editorial page editor of the Review-Journal, and author of "Send in the Waco Killers" and the novel "The Black Arrow." See www.vinsuprynowicz.com/ and www.lvrj.com/blogs/vin/.

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    Chris wrote on October 12, 2009 01:12 AM: Health insurance is a pain after being laid off too. I could keep "my" insurance and pay $800 a month, I could go on COBRA and pay $1100 a month, or I could drop it a take the chance that no insurance company would ever cover me and my wife ... too many unprofitable "pre-existing" conditions. Luckily my wife was able to get us on her work plan for $400 a month with a lot of pleading. But if my wife's work had no insurance plan we also wouldn't be able get on Badgercare (our state assisted program) because we made $100 too much a month. Too poor for private insurance to rich foor state insurance. Hope the wife doesn't lose her job or we're screwed. My wife has a number of medical issues and "our" insurance fights many of our claims. Smelly poor people with their nasty habit of getting sick and the audacity to expect their health insurance would pay! I bet they think their auto insurance will pay if they get into an accident or their life insurance will pay if their spouse has the nerve to die what fools. At least the emergency room will take you, but when the bill arrives you'll just wish your dead....


    Chris wrote on October 12, 2009 01:01 AM: "Unemployment relief will prolong unemployment indefinitely, and delay the shift of workers to the fields where jobs are available." I'm a machinist who got laid off in June. I worked at the 2nd highest paying machine shop in Wisconsin. All the big shops have laid off and all the little shops have hiring freezes or are forcing their employees to take a pay cut or worked reduced hours. All the jobs in the area (30 mile radius) pay a third of what I was making. And their not returning my calls because they're worried when the economy picks up I'll jump ship. I can't even go back to school, because financial aid is based on what you made last year. Last year was good and I was busy. Now I have time and little funds. Health insurance is a nightmare too. I worked hard, went to tech school, and paid my taxes now I'm unemployable. The bankers who crippled the world economy are back inventing new ponzi schemes to get quick cash. Government officials in this "socialist government" are ex-Goldman Sachs people and afraid govt. regulation will hurt the struggling economy. My former company's bottom line is looking better not having to pay so many pesky workers. And the upper management and corporate officers who made foolish business decisions at my job got promotions, moved to other positions or got fired and got bigger slaries due to their "experience." Ah capitalism a system where only the little guy needs to learn discipline. He learns the golden rule - those who have the gold make the rules.


    Dave West wrote on October 11, 2009 08:09 PM: In response to your story about causes of recession, is it just possible that relief will arrive about September of 2010,just in time for the election season and of course it will be because the democrats have been so benevolent... could that possibly be the strategy? Hmmm?


    Rossputin wrote on October 11, 2009 11:00 AM: Your comments are right on target, but I have an answer to your ending question: Washington insists on "repeating this experiment" for two reasons:
    1) It's about buying votes, not helping the economy, and
    2) Progressives always believe the only reason their policies failed in the past is that they weren't implemented by just the right people. Of course, the Obama Adminstration is soooooo much smarter than everyone else that "The One" will be the one to make failed policies work this time.

    That said, it's primarily about buying votes.


    nyp wrote on October 06, 2009 09:08 AM: wow - this is the classic "liquidationist" approach come back to life. The most succinct version came from Andrew Mellon's advice to Herbert Hoover:
    "liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate farmers, liquidate real estate… it will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up from less competent people."

    Amazing to see this approach reappear in 2009.


    Brian Macker wrote on October 05, 2009 08:58 PM: John F,

    "I don't doubt that left to its own devices the economy will self-correct eventually, but why make the people who are out of work wait when we can do something to speed the process. "

    Well one problem with this part of your analysis is the assumption that the actions taken will speed the process. In fact they hamper the process and increase the length of the depression.

    I suggest you go over to you tube you and watch the video by Thomas Woods titled "Why you've never heard of the Great Depression of 1920".

    In fact, history shows you to be wrong as to timing. Those depressions where nothing was done ended much faster than those where the government attempted to "do something". With one caveat, if the "do something" involved cutting government expenditures and letting banks fail that was in fact helpful.


    Geotopia wrote on October 05, 2009 04:55 PM: Very insightful article! Mr. Rothbards writings make a good backdrop to contrast todays' events!


    John F wrote on October 05, 2009 10:09 AM: Mr. Robertson,

    I didn't say it was monetary expansion AFTER WWII that created the recovery; it was the monetary expansion DURING WWII that did it. The period I cited was 1940 - 1945. That expansion of the money supply in the early 1940's was necessitated by the entry into the labor pool of all the people entering the military and all the people entering industry to supprt the war effort.

    I don't doubt that left to its own devices the economy will self-correct eventually, but why make the people who are out of work wait when we can do something to speed the process.

    Winston Smith had it just right yesterday. The problem is that neither major party can find the political courage to do what is right when things are good, namely tighten the belt on spending. They either use good times to justify large tax cuts, large spending increases, or (usually) both. Look what happened in 2000 (And I am not blaming only the Republicans on this. The Democrats, minority though they were, could have stopped it had they really wanted to.)

    I suppose we'll never really know which of these two major economic theories is correct as there are no true Keynesians actually setting economic policy and there hasn't been such a thing as a truly free market in this country for a very long time. I'd be willing to give either a try.


    Bob_Robertson wrote on October 05, 2009 09:41 AM: John F., you are so close to getting it. After WW2 it was NOT monetary expansion that created the recovery. It was the return to the active labor pool and the consumer demand of all those returning soldiers. The Fed.Gov also retrenched after the war, stopping much of its vast intervention into the economy that did exactly what you say it did: Prevented the falling of prices to match the reduction in the money supply of 1/3.

    Now, in case you didn't know, the money supply of the US had a very similar drop in 1836. The Bank of England called it its loans, causing a monetary contraction and "depression". It lasted all of 6 months and the economy came out of it stronger than it went in. But why, with the same conditions, didn't the depression of 1836 last 17 years?

    Because government deliberately got out of the way, instead of doing everything possible to prevent the correction, as it did in 1929 and now.

    Please, please, please read/listen to this:

    http://mises.org/mp3/Pres/Pres11a.mp3

    http://mises.org/story/2201

    Martin van Buren: The American Gladstone / What Greatness Really Means


    Frank wrote on October 05, 2009 08:11 AM: Could the continuation of these reckless policies be an intentional attempt to wreck the economy to gain some kind of perverse control and force us into a globally controlled economy? Heaven forbid! But Heaven predicted.


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