Sherman Frederick

Might Harry call it a day?

I'm a voice in the wilderness on this prediction, but when the deadline for filing for political office in Nevada approaches in early March, it won't surprise me in the least if Sen. Harry Reid calls it a day on his long lawmaking career.

Why?

Well, not to put too fine a point to it, he's headed for disaster anyway, like the proverbial paddler caught in a swift river with the falls fast approaching.

The mood in Nevada (and the rest of the country) has generally taken a hard turn against President Barack Obama and Washington Democrats. In Nevada, the dislike for Reid grows more intense by the day, indicating that if Harry stays in the U.S. Senate race, the contest will be waged solely as a referendum on him.

Forget the many issues of the day, the merits (or lack thereof) of the eventual Republican opponent or even the power of Reid's formidable campaign funds. Voters will pull the lever largely based on how they feel about Reid -- and right now, to use the vernacular, people ain't feelin' good.

The Review-Journal's newest tracking poll, taken last week, shows Reid's popularity remains at an unwinnable level, as it was a month ago, six months ago and a year ago.

The Reid camp talks a brave game about how its own "double-secret probation" polls show him winning. But he's not winning. If the election were held today, two, perhaps three, of the Republicans in the race would trounce him. So, in the next two months, there will be an uncomfortable moment at Reid campaign headquarters when some wonk will fess up to the old man:

"Boss, unless something dramatic happens, we're toast in November."

At that point, reality will set in and, notwithstanding the hackneyed "Reid-is-a-hard-knock-pugilist" myth, it's fairly easy to envision the practical side of Nevada's senior U.S. senator looking for a soft landing.

Reid's peak leverage to cut a deal with the Obama administration is now, not November. Given the priority of health care "reform" to the president, Reid could pretty much name his next job within the administration, thereby saving a little face and preserving one of the things Harry says Nevada needs most in Washington -- the power of Harry.

Reid could also take his campaign resources and newfound time to help his son, Rory, who on the current trajectory faces likely defeat in his bid for governor. Do not underestimate the powerful motivation of a father sacrificing for his son.

And, finally, if Sen. Reid timed his exit just right, he could push former Henderson Mayor Jim Gibson, a very conservative Democrat, virtually unopposed through the liberal gantlet of a Democratic primary, thereby giving his party its best chance at holding onto Harry's seat.

When I revealed this theory to folks over the holidays, they looked at me like you'd look at a street preacher yelling, "Repent! The end of the world is near!"

Then Sen. Chris Dodd surprised the political world and shook the Democratic Party by announcing he'd retire at the end of this year, rather than face likely defeat in November. Now everybody wants to hear my theory again. They think I know something from an inside source.

I don't.

I just know Nevada. I can read a poll.

And I'm bold enough to tell the truth -- even to powerful U.S. senators.

So allow me to repeat: The end's a-comin', Harry, one way or another.

Sherman Frederick (sfrederick@ reviewjournal.com) is publisher of the Las Vegas Review-Journal and president of Stephens Media.

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Comments

Note: Comments made by reporters and editors of the Las Vegas Review-Journal are presented with a yellow background.

1. Miles Monroe Jan. 11, 2010 | 4:04 p.m. Report Abuse

   patrick. Harry is a racist and must go. Nuff said. Six of Harry's top twenty contributors are Fatcat Plaintiffs' attorneys. His number one contributor is MGM Mirage. Harry has become everything he used to fight against. A corrupt establishment politician who uses bribery instead of compromise to achieve his goals.

2. Green Dragon Regular Jan. 11, 2010 | 10:43 a.m. Report Abuse

   @li'l "p"-
   
   Ah, still living in a world of generalization I see.
   
   Union members are not doing fine. The union trades have been the hardest hit by job losses and the SEIU will soon feel the pain of layoffs due to its inability to renegotiate lower pay to prevent job loss.
   
   Conservative is incongruous to compassion? You couldn't be more wrongheaded in your thinking. The conservative form of compassion could best be summed up by the old addage "Teach a man to fish..."
   
   Which compassion runs deeper? The one that empowers people to succeed on their own, or the one that teaches them to be dependent forever?
   
   A good reading of Ayn Rand might befit you li'l "p".

3. patrick Jan. 10, 2010 | 3:19 p.m. Report Abuse

   Green:
   
   Don't you fret yourself none, those union guys are doing just fine; they just got a raise don't you know.
   
   Nice of you, and odd given your standing as a "conservative" to worry about others; congratulations!

4. NO Union Jan. 10, 2010 | 2:22 p.m. Report Abuse

   It just all depends on how you look at some things...Here is how politic spin is done......
   Judy Wallman, a professional genealogy researcher in southern California , was doing some personal work on her own family tree. She discovered that Congressman Harry Reid's great-great uncle, Remus Reid, was hanged for horse stealing and train robbery in Montana in 1889. Both Judy and Harry Reid share this common ancestor.
   The only known photograph of Remus shows him standing on the gallows in Montana territory: SO.....
   On the back of the picture Judy obtained during her research is this inscription: 'Remus Reid, horse thief, sent to Montana Territorial Prison 1885, escaped 1887, robbed the Montana Flyer six times. Caught by Pinkerton detectives, convicted and hanged in 1889.'
   So Judy recently e-mailed Congressman Harry Reid for information about their great-great uncle.
   Harry Reid Camp said the following: Believe it or not, Harry Reid's staff sent back the following biographical sketch for her genealogy research:
   "Remus Reid was a famous cowboy in the Montana Territory . His business empire grew to include acquisition of valuable equestrian assets and intimate dealings with the Montana railroad. Beginning in 1883, he devoted several years of his life to government service, finally taking leave to resume his dealings with the railroad. In 1887, he was a key player in a vital investigation run by the renowned Pinkerton Detective Agency. In 1889, Remus passed away during an important civic function held in his honor when the platform upon which he was standing collapsed."
   NOW THAT's how it's done, Folks!
   That's real POLITICAL SPIN

5. Athos Jan. 10, 2010 | 2:03 p.m. Report Abuse

   Brian, little p and Dave in Summerlin,
   
   3 little eeyore trolls in the employ of Dr. Utopia!
   
   Nice article, Sherm, but I still want Harry to be judged in the polls next November. His brand of Crooks and Communist party affiliation needs to be put down HARD.

6. Green Dragon Regular Jan. 10, 2010 | 1:59 p.m. Report Abuse

   @l'il "p"-
   
   Tell that to all the out-of-work union members who voted for the rocket scientist who's in there now.
   
   Or is the only "economy" that matters the one that affects you?
   
   P.S. Don't recall having W. on my minion roster.

7. Brian Jan. 10, 2010 | 1:22 p.m. Report Abuse

   Sherm,
   
   You are WORST person in the world.

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