Comments (10) | Add a comment
Steve Sebelius
Straw polls are more like fantasy football
What's up with the straw polls?
Republican voters in some early placebo elections are all over the map with some exotic choices, from Herman Cain in Florida to Ron Paul in California to Michelle Bachmann in Iowa. Mitt Romney -- a front runner in polls not conducted at GOP meetings in various states -- even won one in Michigan.
Here in Nevada, voters at the annual Conservative Leadership Conference in July also picked Cain for president, with 24 percent of the vote. (Then again, Cain was one of just two presidential contenders to show up to the conference after a planned presidential debate was cancelled. Second-place Nevada straw poll finisher Romney threw the schedule askew when he dropped out of the debate.)
MSNBC host Rachel Maddow tallied the results of all straw polls on a recent show, showing that Cain had won polls in Washington state, Colorado, Georgia and Florida. Paul took California (as well as the coveted Conservative Political Action Committee poll). Romney took Ohio and New Hampshire in addition to Michigan. Rick Santorum racked up Pennsylvania and South Carolina.
If straw polls meant electoral college votes, Cain would be the front runner, with 66, followed by Paul, with 55, Santorum with 29 and Bachmann with six.
But here's the thing: Does anybody think Cain, Bachmann, Santorum or Paul have even a remote chance of winning the Republican nomination?
No, not really.
Maddow on her show seemed irked at the media's attention to the straw poll results, reminding all of us that the events were mostly an attempt to raise money for various Republican groups more than an actual snapshot of who's leading.
For that, we turn to opinion polls, which show Romney and Perry out ahead, as well as being the candidates who run strongest against President Obama.
So why does it seem early voters mostly favor everybody but those two?
For one, consider the voters. These are active Republicans, people who pay close attention to politics more than just every four years when there's an election.
The crowd at Nevada's Conservative Leadership Conference understood all the inside political jokes, and were only too willing to give up an entire Saturday to hear some of the leading lights of the conservative movement. Average voters they are not.
Consequently, these voters are more likely to vote along lines of principle than pragmatism. They're conservatives who want a conservative candidate who shares their views, and will act on them, rather than somebody who will tell them what they want to hear.
Second, there's nothing to lose in straw poll voting. You don't commit yourself to vote that way in the general election, so there's nothing riding on your vote. It's a perfect time to send an early message to front runners, and that message is this: We like the guys who are true believers, who won't compromise their conservative principles. Be more like them, and we'll give you another look by the time the actual caucus or primary rolls around.
And they no doubt will. Although Paul's supporters in 2008 did an excellent job organizing themselves and very nearly took over the Republican state convention (which party leaders had to shut down to avoid sending Paul delegates to the GOP's national convention!), Paul ran a distant second in Nevada's 2008 caucus. Romney won, which is a very likely outcome this year, too.
But for now, it's fun to flirt with the possibilities, to express your true political beliefs rather than settle for the pragmatic choice, and to hand a win to somebody who may never get a chance to win the real thing next year.
Steve Sebelius is a Review-Journal political columnist and author of the blog SlashPolitics.com. Follow him on Twitter at www.Twitter.com/SteveSebelius or reach him at 387-5276 or SSebelius@reviewjournal.com.
Comments
Terms & Conditions
The following comments are provided by readers and are the sole responsiblity of the authors. The Review-Journal does not review comments before publication nor guarantee their accuracy. By publishing a comment here you agree to abide by the comment policy. If you see a comment that violates the policy, please use the Report Abuse button.
Some comments may not display immediately due to an automatic filter. These comments will be reviewed within 24 hours. Please do not submit a comment more than once.
Note: Comments made by reporters and editors of the Las Vegas Review-Journal are presented with a yellow background.
RSS
Twitter
Facebook
@ jlw, yep good one with exeption that Harry embarrasses us almost as much. ////// jgiles pays no attention to anything, just another blowhard hater tot!
Things have changed. Registered Independent to Republican to Independent over the last 15 years here. Herman Cain can win; it's not a Ron Paul pipe dream. Barry Obama's numbers are so low right now, the Reagan tsunami over Carter will be a small statistic compared to Obama's loss in 2012. The best bet the Dem's have is for Reid to go to Barry, and say, a la LBJ, "give it to Hillary, dude. You're embarrasing us."
That's why Obama will never create more than 99 jobs. It was hard enough learning Baskin-Robbins 31 flavors.
Flat earth conservatives like the low voter numbers in straw polling because they can't count past 99.
Howard Cain won the Florida straw poll because he handed out free pizzas to anyone who vote for him -- all 250 of them.
Straw polls monitor diddly squat. They monitor the artards stupid enough to PAY for a right to cast a ballot. This is the equivalent of trying to extrapolate reason from a piece of fairy cake. What a bunch of maroons.
Another pointless column. Straw polls measure voter intensity, which indicates how likely the candidates will get contributions and volunteer support. And, Stevie, I wouldn't be citing Maddow as some sort of authority to discredit straw poll results. Her ratings are in friends-and-family territory for a reason.
Typical left wing liberal racist commentator who will accuse the conservatives of racism. A commentator like this is deathly afraid of a conservative Black Man. At last a real person with morals and conservative values. Herman Cain is probably the only one with the integrity and honesty to become a real President for the American people and would bring our standing up in the world which Obuma has so ruined. I would like to see him also teamed with Allen West for VP. Maybe this is a team all the Liberal Jews could vote for after Obuma threw Israel under the bus.
Hope and change brought us what? High foreclosures, high unemployment, tripled deficit with a real threat to our own national security, tax hikes, downgrade in America's credit, regulations imposed on corporations up the wahzoo, unconstitutional mandates for healthcare, cartel wars going on at the TX border and what does obama do? He's out campaigning telling you put your marching boots on....headed for the nearest cliff.
The thoughts of the Republican nominee being a black terrifies Liberals. They instantly lose the race card they are so adept at playing. Especially to a black that happens to be more black than their candidate. Don't worry Libs, if Cain gets nominated you can still talk about how he is going to starve Grandma by taking away her SS and club baby harp donkeys to death at every opportunity.