ED GRANEY: UNLV's only path now: three wins in three days - Sports

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Feb. 26, 2009
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

ED GRANEY: UNLV's only path now: three wins in three days

ED GRANEY
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UNLV Basketball - Men

SALT LAKE CITY -- The best thing you can say today: A strategy for UNLV's basketball team to make a third straight NCAA Tournament has become abundantly clear.

The worst thing you can say: That plan requires the Rebels to be consistently good over a three-day span.

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It is a journey that probably will begin in a game between Nos. 4 and 5 seeds in the first round of the conference tournament, which short of a few implausible developments in the next 10 days is where UNLV will begin when nine Mountain West teams gather at the Thomas & Mack Center.

The probability of that placement grew more certain with a 70-60 loss to first-place Utah on Wednesday night, a game the Rebels lost here over a six-minute stretch to end the first half.

That's when Utah did what it wanted offensively and the Rebels more than obliged by not reacting with any defensive movement resembling desire. That's when a 20-20 game became a 38-24 lead for the Utes.

Fourth or fifth place in the Mountain West won't increase the interest of the NCAA Tournament selection committee in its early hours of deliberating at-large candidates. It won't push you any further onto the bubble, but it could shove you off it.

It's not certain the Rebels can't still gain an at-large bid if they reach the tournament final and lose. Their resume will still contain quality wins against Louisville, Arizona, Utah and Brigham Young (twice).

It's not definite UNLV needs to win all three games to ensure itself a spot, but this is certain: The Rebels sure better prepare and play as if they must.

Leaving anything to chance now in a tournament on your own court would be like wandering around pit row during a NASCAR race. Stupid.

"I think we've always felt like we needed to go into the (conference tournament) and win games," coach Lon Kruger said. "I don't think we ever felt it would be OK to lose. We'll prepare for it the same we have the last two years."

A big difference: They went 12-4 in the conference the last two years, each time owning the No. 2 tournament seed. They would've perhaps been in trouble without advancing to the final each time, though an RPI of 10 in 2007 suggested at least one win would have been enough.

In those years, UNLV's margin for error in early March was pleasantly stout. This year it's razor thin.

The advantage of playing the tournament at home remains enormous, but Kruger will have to deal with issues that didn't exist the previous two years. Specifically, predicting how his leading players might perform, which this season has been like forecasting the next Super Lotto winner.

Wink Adams has played 129 career games for UNLV, and the senior guard has offered countless more positive moments than negative. You don't score more than 1,800 points by being average.

But he has struggled as a shooter from the start of the season, and his 3-for-12 effort Wednesday only supported this point: UNLV could play well and still not win three tournament games, but it has zero chance if Adams resembles the player he did here.

"Wink had a tough night," Kruger said. "We need him to be good, no question about that. He's been there a long time for us. We need to make sure he's (playing well)."

Said Adams: "I've put a lot of pressure on myself this year to pick my team up and make plays when we've needed them. I want my teammates to believe in me, but I have to knock down shots when they are there."

You get a clear picture of reality after 28 games. UNLV is a good but hardly great team whose major warts -- no size, an utter lack of physical feistiness -- are exposed more by some teams than others.

It would be interesting to hear Kruger rank his most frustrating times with a team over the years. You have to believe this season has offered him some of his more exasperating moments as a coach.

That could all change over 72 hours, over three days and three games.

The strategy is fairly clear today.

UNLV might not win the conference tournament and still emerge with an at-large NCAA bid, but those odds shrink considerably as the Mountain West elite continues to separate itself from those seemingly now destined for the 4 vs. 5 game.

The Rebels need to think three wins in three days.

It's the deserved fate of any team sitting in fifth place.

Las Vegas Review-Journal sports columnist Ed Graney can be reached at 383-4618 or egraney@reviewjournal.com

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Please enter your name Name: Please enter your email Email: Please enter a comment COMMENTS : (word count limit is 300) You have reached the maximum number of words allowed Current Word Count: Note: Comments made by reporters and editors of the Las Vegas Review-Journal are presented with a yellow background. Jay T wrote on February 27, 2009 01:43 AM: I hate to say it but WE'RE BETTER OFF WITH WINK ON THE BENCH. Our best game was without him (Louisville). The rest of team seems to pick up when he's not in the game. JD wrote on February 26, 2009 07:48 PM: Good game Rebels! I think Kruger has to get UNLV some BIG men. Utes have more tree's coming. David Foster, 7-2, returns from his LDS mission and has three years of eligiblity left to step right in when Luke Nevill graduates. Foster showed more promise as a freshmen than Luke did. See you in the tourney, go rebels, GO UTES! Jack wrote on February 26, 2009 11:41 AM: Everyone must not know that UNLV has more top 50 RPI wins than everyone else in the conference. Only 8 schools inthe entire country have more than UNLV. The only school in the MWC with a better resume than UNLV is Utah. Byu has 1 quality win and is 1-4 against top 50 RPI teams. Also UNLV swept BYU. The margin for error is thin. UNLV must beat Air Force and SDSU and get to the MWC tournament final. But to say they are out of the at-large race is crazy. No less than ESPN, an organization that is anti-MWC, says UNLV has the second best resume in the conference outside of Utah. The season isn't over yet. Sure but do they deserve it? wrote on February 26, 2009 10:35 AM: Even if the rebs win the tourney or somehow get an at large bid does this tema really deserve it? I hope they do make the tourney but I would not want to see the the team embarassed by a first round blowout in the big dance...I dunno. GO POKES wrote on February 26, 2009 10:16 AM: Ed Graney, is the greatest thing since sliced bread, so he thinks. Sorry guys the officials did not cause UNLV to lose. Jerry Wayne wrote on February 26, 2009 10:03 AM: they were definitely treating Luke like Shaq. Also, if that guy gets body contact in the air, which he does on every block and rebound, there should be a foul. IMO We just have to play them tougher in the tournament. Rebel Fan in Indiana wrote on February 26, 2009 08:50 AM: Actually, last night we forced Utah into 20 turnovers while we only had 7. Sure, a couple of ours came at very inopportune times (such as Wink's TO after Utah's 3 to put them up 55-50), but TOs were not the problem last night. To me, it is our inconsistent offense (or perhaps more appropriately, our consistently poor performance on offense). We miss way too many shots every game, and often dig ourselves a big hole early, which we can never quite dig ourselves out of. Lack of leadership and focus is another problem. Losing to Utah on the road isn't that big of a deal. The problem occurred long ago with our losses to TCU, CSU, and Wyoming. We have focus for the big games, but despite our constant stumbling, still seem to think we don't have to play hard against the weaker teams. This really makes me question our ability to win in the conference tourney. Somehow we have to adopt the mindset that these are must win games. I just don't know if we can do it. Perhaps being the 4 or 5 seed and having to play a SDSU or UNM in the first round will be better for our motivation than if we got a higher seed and had to play a Wyoming, TCU, or CSU. I definitely think we have the talent to win. Problem is, this year, so do 4 other teams. The question is, how badly will we want it? Go Rebs! Chris wrote on February 26, 2009 08:35 AM: Not that it decided the game, but the MWC officials need to know that pushing off for separation is an offensive foul. Utah did that time and again last night. Defenders need to start learning to flop like Vlade Divac did. RebCam wrote on February 26, 2009 08:11 AM: Drive miss, drive miss, drive miss, drive turnover, drive miss, etc....... Hundreds of times this season I've watched Wink and Willis drive the lane get bumped or expect contact and then lose the ball out of bounds or miss badly on the layup. Over and over and over. Same ole s***. Only difference this game, they all did it. What the crap happened to the drive kick?! There was no kick!!! Such promise in the beginning. The amazing thing is that I never...never even considered 3 weeks ago that we would really have to play in the NIT. Hopefully it will be a quick death there so that we don't have to experience the ups and downs any longer. Win the conference tournament...maybe...but I'm not counting on it. Jerry Wayne wrote on February 26, 2009 08:07 AM: "You get a clear picture of reality after 28 games. UNLV is a good but hardly great team whose major warts -- no size, an utter lack of physical feistiness -- are exposed more by some teams than others." Ed you must not watch to much Rebel basketball. Although our lack of size is a disadvantage our three major warts are turnovers, inconsistent shooting, and free throws. Although we did well at the stripe last night, we turned over the ball too often. Utah gave us the opportunities, we played hard, but we couldn't pull it out.