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Matt Youmans
Belichick might've been right
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Photo by The Associated Press
Patriots coach Bill Belichick walks off the field at Indianapolis after New England's 35-34 loss to the Colts in the final seconds Sunday.
Updated: Apr. 10, 2012 | 9:57 a.m.
Always propped up and praised for his higher intelligence, New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick found himself in an odd position Sunday -- being fitted for a dunce cap by the talking heads of the national media. But it's not as simple as that, so this being the NFL, the play call in question is now under further review.
Don't pile on Belichick and jump in on the second-guessing party until you hear the logic of Steve Fezzik, a professional gambler and advantage player who knows a lot about playing the percentages.
"It was a brilliant call. It's not even debatable. It's not even close," Fezzik said. "The guy is a genius."
But Belichick's arrogance and intelligence is being derided from coast to coast, so the debate is unavoidable.
In the most stunning ending to a game yet this season, the Patriots squandered a 17-point fourth-quarter lead and collapsed in a 35-34 loss to the Indianapolis Colts.
Belichick took a gamble -- a highly controversial one to some -- by deciding to go for a potential clinching first down on fourth-and-2 at the Patriots' own 28-yard line with 2:08 left.
The end result was Belichick's risk blew up in his face, as Tom Brady's completion to Kevin Faulk was ruled just short of the first-down marker. Belichick was tagged as the goat by NBC analysts Cris Collinsworth, Rodney Harrison and Al Michaels, and almost everyone else who weighed in to rip the NFL's most successful coach.
It took only four plays for the Colts to score the tying touchdown. Peyton Manning expertly milked the clock before connecting with Reggie Wayne, who snagged a 1-yard pass with 13 seconds left. The point-after kick drove the nail in the Patriots' coffin.
So here's the big question: Was Belichick wrong not to punt and force Manning to drive about 75 yards with less than two minutes to go?
Harrison, who played for Belichick in New England, sternly said, "This is the worst coaching decision I've ever seen Belichick make."
Collinsworth said Harrison's opinion was "dead on the money," and Michaels said the call will "live in infamy."
Belichick explained he was trying to win the game on one play, and avoid leaving his defense at Manning's mercy. The safe call would have been to punt and squelch the chance of rampant second-guessing.
"Belichick was absolutely correct to go for it there," Fezzik said. "If the Patriots punt, they lose anyway."
The only scenario in which Manning could not have won the game is the one where the Patriots get the first down and run out the clock. That's the option Belichick chose with little hesitation.
As Fezzik said, everyone who bet the Colts to win straight up on the money line was hoping the Patriots would punt and put the game in Manning's hands.
"The second the Patriots go for it, the Colts become a bigger underdog" in the live in-game betting market, Fezzik said.
The odds speak loudly in this case, and Belichick played the percentages the right way. The result just went wrong.
If the Patriots had picked up the first down, Belichick would have been hailed as a gutsy, unconventional genius. Instead, the game will be remembered by most for Belichick's blunder and Manning's miracle.
Belichick's lone regret is not having a timeout left so he could have challenged the spot on Faulk's reception.
If you bet New England plus-3 as I did, you won your wager regardless, and all the debating is strictly for entertainment. It was a phenomenal game with a fascinating ending.
The Patriots continued a day of dominance for the underdogs, who went 9-3-1 against the spread. Carolina, Cincinnati, Green Bay, Jacksonville, Kansas City and Washington won outright.
Arizona, San Diego and Tennessee were the only favorites to cover. Miami and New Orleans won but failed to cover as double-digit favorites. The bottom line is NFL underdogs are back with a vengeance, and Las Vegas sports books are again welcoming the business.
"It should have been a very good day for most books," said Jimmy Vaccaro, director of operations for Lucky's sports books.
The Patriots-Colts showdown drew a healthy handle, as anticipated, and the game exceeded the hype.
"It was pretty good two-way action," Vaccaro said. "You truly love to have these types of games. You can talk to 10 people, and five can give you reasons for taking the Colts and five can give you reasons for taking the Patriots."
Fezzik gave you reasons for supporting Belichick's controversial decision, whether you liked it or not.
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...A common cerebral play often used from the Joe Paterno, PSU and Don Shula, Dolphins playbook would be to take a too much time penalty ( 30 seconds..??)..and follow with a long count (29 seconds..??) with the punter running as much time off the clock in the end zone ( 5-- 10 seconds..??) and giving up a safety preserving a four point lead and keeping bettors happy and having faith with your defense.
...Hopefully you can run a minute off the clock before giving the ball up on the twenty or thirty of the Colts and keeping the long ball away from the end zone, giving up a field goal and taking a one point victory at worst.
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Maybe Belichick has taken sports gambling lessons from Pete Rose.
FEZZICK = DIONNE WARRICK AND IS JUST AS BAD OF A PSYCIC. HE COULD BE RIGHT BUT IN ALL REALLITY THEY WOULD HAVE HAD TO WORK HARDER FOR THE WIN. A LOT OF GAMBLERS HAVE COME AND GONE IN VEGAS, AND FUNNY THIER NAMES NEVER GO UP ON THE HOTELS. IF YOU WANT TO GAMBLE AND WHEN YOU'D BETTER BE THE CASINO.
The historic percentages of a loosing team scoring with two minutes left are not in Belichick's favor. Should have punted and relied on the defense.
? = $
I hate the Pats!
The call was genius!
It was absolutely, positively the right call, if only other coaches had the guts, and the security, to make these kinds of calls the game would be even better than it is today.