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MATT YOUMANS: Rancid teams prove to be bookmakers' nightmare



A screen pass from Brett Favre turned ugly, the Pittsburgh Steelers got a fluke point-spread cover and more favorites continued to win in blowouts. The formula surely had more than a few sports book directors dropping F-bombs.

The bottom line from Week 7 in the NFL: It was the best Sunday to be a bettor, and the worst Sunday to be a bookmaker.


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  • ''I can't remember an NFL season with this many bad teams,'' said Las Vegas Hilton sports book director Jay Kornegay, who has been in the business for 22 years. "No doubt, it was the worst day ever for the books.

    ''We can't attract money on these poor teams. We keep losing on the same teams. They are not even close to covering.''

    On the other hand, in a rare game involving very good teams, the Steelers' 27-17 victory over the Minnesota Vikings was about the closest cover imaginable.

    Pittsburgh, which closed as a 6-point home favorite, was in danger of losing when Favre tried to connect with running back Chester Taylor. The pass bounced off Taylor's hands, and the Steelers' Keyaron Fox lumbered 82 yards on the interception return for a touchdown with one minute remaining.

    A Favre fumble, which LaMarr Woodley returned 77 yards for a score, put Pittsburgh up 20-10 with 6:23 left.

    It took 14 seconds for Percy Harvin to trim the Vikings' deficit to 20-17 with an 88-yard kickoff return. Minnesota was then on the verge of tying or winning when Favre's screen pass dissolved into bad-beat heartbreak if you bet on the Vikings.

    If you bet on the Steelers, acknowledge the lucky break, cash the ticket and offer no apologies.

    But it was a sorry Sunday morning for Las Vegas books with public favorites Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Indianapolis, New England and San Diego covering. Houston pushed as a 3-point favorite in a 24-21 win over San Francisco.

    "I talked to a few other directors, and it was as bad as it could get in the morning, when you have the favorites going 5-0-1,'' Kornegay said. ''From that point, it's very difficult for the books to dig out of that kind of hole. From there, it's damage control. The parlay liability snowballs.''

    The Patriots were 151/2-point favorites in a 35-7 victory over Tampa Bay at London. The Colts were 14-point road favorites in a 42-6 victory over St. Louis. The Packers, 9-point road favorites, put a 31-3 beating on Cleveland.

    The Buccaneers, Rams and Browns are a combined 1-20 straight up and 6-15 against the spread this season.

    ''We're all wracking our brains trying to figure out these games,'' Vegas Insider handicapper Barry Holthaus said. ''I guess just bet against the Browns, Bucs and Rams every week.''

    Not to mention the Chiefs and Raiders, a combined 3-11 straight up and 5-9 against the spread.

    The Chiefs were 5-point home underdogs in a 37-7 loss to the Chargers. The Raiders were 6-point home underdogs in a 38-0 loss to the New York Jets.

    ''When you give a team 14 points at home or 15 points at a neutral site, you think you're doing the right thing,'' Kornegay said. ''In the past, you would hardly ever see a team getting 14 points at home. But some of these teams are so terrible, you might see it on a weekly basis. It creates a bad situation for the sports books when the bad teams don't cover, because liability adds up real fast.

    ''These are things you don't hear in a sports book: What's that (betting) number on the Rams? Hey, I love the Buccaneers.''

    Kornegay said more than 90 percent of the straight bets made at the Hilton on the Colts-Rams game were on the Colts.

    He added that he's not asking for any sympathy tears: ''It's just trying to explain what's happening.''

    The bookmakers and oddsmakers need to ''aggressively adjust'' the numbers, Kornegay said, so we might soon be seeing 17- or 20-point favorites in the NFL.

    Favorites are 8-3-1 against the spread this week. Only Arizona, Buffalo and Cincinnati delivered as underdogs. The Cardinals helped the books by upsetting the New York Giants.

    But Dallas blew out Atlanta, and New Orleans, a 6-point road favorite, erased a 21-point deficit to defeat Miami, 46-34.

    "I can guarantee every book on the planet needs the Dolphins to either win or cover against the Saints. But that's just preventing a nightmare,'' Kornegay said, as the Saints stormed back and the books' nightmare worsened.

    Contact reporter Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.

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    Steve wrote on October 27, 2009 06:44 AM: Why don't the books get Bernie Kukar in there to make something happen?


    Besh Cooper wrote on October 26, 2009 08:43 PM: If the books adjust to 17 or 20 point spreads who is going to wager on those games?
    Just hope St*t**n does not mess with their formula of setting prop bets for Sunday and Monday night! Those are gold.


    Matt wrote on October 26, 2009 05:59 PM: The REAL story was how bad Vegas had to feel when the Dolphins threw a pick-6 in the last minutes of their game against New Orleans.

    It went from a 6 point (Miami Cover) Saints lead to 12 points...shifting the $$ to the favorites.

    The Dolphins then regained the ball, drove all the way down the field, and NEARLY scored a TD with scant seconds remaining; only to be victim of a 'clock run-off' on an illegal formation penalty, while trying to spike the ball and stop the clock on 1st and Goal.

    Finally, a 'gut-punch' for Vegas. The tables turned - just this once - but don't expect it to stay this way.


    RONTHEGREEK wrote on October 26, 2009 05:54 PM: Yes,
    We should feel sorry for the bookies!
    They are the ones that set the lines, DO THEY THINK THEY ARE UNBEATABLE?
    They have a bad week and cry poverty. How about the last few weeks when they set outragous lines and got lucky, even with the many major upsets.
    They need to grow up and quit crying over a bad week, and either try again next week or get out of the business, just like us betters do.
    Or mabe ask Obama to give them a "stimulus package"!


    Waitaminute wrote on October 26, 2009 05:22 PM: In other words this mythical parity that the anal-ysts always talk about is virtually non-existent this year. I cannot remember such a separation between good and bad teams either.


    CasinoMogul wrote on October 26, 2009 02:46 PM: WAAAAAA!!! My formula for making oney is getting screwed up and now I part with my precious cash! WAAAAAAAAA!!!


    Monte wrote on October 26, 2009 02:07 PM: Nice article www.bettorschat.com


    ex gambler wrote on October 26, 2009 09:31 AM: Always happy to see the casinos lose their shirts.